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Division: Sport Fish
Title: Abundance of late-run Kasilof River Chinook salmon, 2005–2008
Author: Reimer, A. M., and S. J. Fleischman
Year: 2012
Report ID: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Fishery Data Series No. 12-63, Anchorage
Abstract: The abundance of wild Chinook salmon, ocean-age-.2 or greater, migrating into the Kasilof River was estimated using modified 2-event mark–recapture experiments from 2005 to 2008. Radiotelemetry was used to investigate and correct for the effects of handling and marking on fish behavior. In 2005, a pilot study yielded only limited information about abundance. With 90% probability, the 2005 abundance was between 5,837 and 25,637 fish. Improvements in study design and sample size yielded better precision in succeeding years. With 90% probability, the 2006 abundance was between 6,517 and 11,514 fish, the 2007 abundance was between 6,433 and 11,002 fish, and the 2008 abundance was between 5,563 and 13,613 fish. The most likely values (modes of Bayesian posterior probability distributions) of abundance were 8,611 in 2006, 8,522 in 2007, and 8,276 in 2008. A point estimate for 2005 is meaningless due to the imprecision of the estimate although there is 87%, 89%, and 83% probability that the 2005 abundance exceeded 2006–2008 abundances, respectively. The inriver run was predominantly age 1.4 for the years 2005–2007 but predominantly age 1.3 in 2008.
Keywords: Kasilof River, Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tsawytscha, mark–recapture, radiotelemetry, gillnetting, Bayesian statistics